| Event happens on... | Event | Power | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not treated | Treated | Small effect | Medium effect | Large effect | |
| Day 4 | 129 | 1329 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 7 | 257 | 1200 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 10 | 386 | 1071 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 13 | 514 | 943 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 17 | 686 | 771 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
London School of Economics and Political Science
May 22, 2023
“research design that exploits the occurrence of an unexpected event during the fieldwork of a public opinion survey to estimate its causal effect on a relevant outcome by comparing responses of the individuals interviewed before the event \(t_i<t_e\) (control group) to those of respondents interviewed after the event \(t_i>t_e\) (treatment group).” (Muñoz et al., 2020, p. 187)
“the design is just a standard cross-section, but the day on which a respondent is interviewed is chosen randomly” (Johnston & Brady, 2022, p. 283)
“The data collected in an RCS allow a fine-grained analysis of dynamic phenomena of public opinion” (Lutz et al., 2013, p. 3)
Steps (Kenski et al., 2010):
1. Temporal ignorability: Moment of the interview should be as good as random
Excludability: Timing of the interview \(t\) affects \(Y\) only through event \(T\)
Compliance: assignment to the treatment (\(t_i>t_e\)) corresponds to actually receiving treatment (\(T=1\))
Police work requires public support to be able to function in a democratic context
Beliefs that the police act in procedurally just ways and are legitimate facilitate compliance and cooperation with authorities
A socially legitimate police force should require little violence to confront opposition
However, the world has seen many cases of violent demonstrations, police violence and human rights violations
Chile’s main police force, the Carabineros, was among the most trusted institutions (Dammert, 2019)
Yet, recent events of corruption and excessive use of force during the social uprising in October 2019 have produced a serious loss of trust (Gerber et al., 2023)
Crisis of legitimacy: proposals of “deep reform” and even the dissolution of the institution
Need to understand relationship between police and citizens in Chile during the next crucial years
Probability-based online panel of the population in Chile (18-65 years old)
Panel study with 10 waves
Face-to-face recruitment with probability-based sampling design
Sample size
Possibility to combine with non-probabilistic sample to increase sample size
| Event happens on... | Event | Power | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not treated | Treated | Small effect | Medium effect | Large effect | |
| Day 4 | 129 | 1329 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 7 | 257 | 1200 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 10 | 386 | 1071 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 13 | 514 | 943 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Day 17 | 686 | 771 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
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